Category Archives: Sports

The Importance Of Betting Units Won

The Importance Of Betting Units WonSports bettors tend to keep good records of their winnings and losses, those that don’t keep records will at least remember whether they win or lose a bet. Bu there is an even more important number that most of them don’t remember, which is the Betting Units Won. The Betting Units Won is the amount of money a group of plays won or lost after factoring in the juice. It is essentially the margin of profit or loss recorded for any set of wagers. Winning percentage is undoubtedly important but the only reason players bet is to win money and Betting Units Won is the best way to analyze not just if but how much the sports bettor has won.

The calculation for Betting Units Won is simple when you use the following formula. Considering that X represents the odds of the bet, the calculation is X divided by 100 if the betting odds are greater than 0 or -100 divided by X if the betting odds are lesser than 0. For example, if the Pittsburgh Steelers are a three-point favorite over the Baltimore Ravens and the juice is set at -115, then you would use the -115 as the betting odds. Since it is a negative you plug in the calculation as -100/-115, which equals 0.8696. If Pittsburgh wins and covers the spread, you will have won +0.87 units by betting on them. If the Steelers don’t cover, then you will lose one unit.

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The equation listed above isn’t difficult to understand but its importance can often be underrated. The majority of public sports bettors will bet blindly without keeping track of the amount of money they wager as well as the amount of money they win or lose. That can be a major problem because the reality is that in order to make a profit by betting on sports you have to win more often than you lose. Consider the example above. If that bet wins five times, then the number of units won will be 4.348. If that bet loses five times, then the number of units lost will be 5.0. Therefore, if you make that wager 10 times and win only five then you will end up with a negative margin. According to this example, you would have to win six of the 10 wagers in order to make a profit on the wagers and even then it would only be a 0.2158 percent margin.

Many bettors like to stay away from money line based sports because they understand that the more the juice is raised by the sports books the tougher it is to make a profit. The sports books can make a favorite -130, -150 or even -300 if they really want to raise the juice and the reality is that the profit margin when these teams win doesn’t outweigh when they lose. Remember the importance of betting units won when placing your bets at WagerWeb.ag

No Easy Bets – Cavaliers vs. Hornets

No Easy Bets – Cavaliers vs. HornetsHornets will look to knock off the top team in the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers, on Friday. Oddsmakers initially set the Cavs as 3-point road chalk with a total of 215. This is a team the Cavs have dominated since LeBron James returned to Cleveland for the 2014-15 season. The Cavs are 9-1 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS against the Hornets during that timeframe.

It looks too easy to bet Cleveland in this game. The general public agrees too, as the early bet percentage returns show that 84% in the early bets are on the Cavaliers.

When we see numbers like this, the normal reaction would be to take the Hornets. However, when handicapping games, one must look at the trends, situational spots and motivational angles. We should not really care who the public is betting on.

There is a motivational angle or two for Cleveland tonight.

First, the Cavaliers are the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and their hold on the top spot has become precarious. The Boston Celtics trail the Cavs by just one game and are closing fast. The Celtics play the Phoenix Suns on Friday. The Suns have the third-worst record in the league and have lost and not covered the spread six games in a row.

Phoenix is also sitting some veterans so their young guys can play out the string and the Suns are on the back-end of a back-to-back tonight. Phoenix got blown out 126-98 on Thursday night by the Brooklyn Nets, who have the worst record in the league.

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The Cavs know the Celtics are very likely to win Friday, as Boston has been listed as a 15-point favorite against the Suns. This means a Cleveland loss to Charlotte would put the Cavs in a virtual tie for first place with Boston.

Make no mistake, James is concerned about his image. Cleveland is coming off another poor defensive effort in a 126-113 road loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. In that game, James had a plus/minus number of -30, the third worst number in that category for his career. The plus/minus number reflects how many points a team is up or down while that player is on the court. So in a 13-point loss to Denver, the Cavaliers were down 30 points to the Nuggets while LeBron was playing. Looking at some stats between these two we have:

The total has gone OVER in five of the Cavaliers’ last six games against the Hornets.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Hornets.

The Hornets are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against teams with winning records.

Charlotte has won three straight but has just 11 games left to play, with 10 of those tilts coming against teams competing for postseason spots. The Hornets will play their next three at home before ending the campaign with five of eight on the road with stops in Toronto, Oklahoma City and Washington. There are no easy bets on this one, sign up to WagerWeb.ag

Maximize Your Sports Betting Profits

Maximize Your Sports Betting ProfitsIt’s a widely known concept that the vast majority of sports bettors are going to lose money. There is actually a pretty large percentage of sports gamblers who will lose money over the course of the year, but that doesn’t stop people from wagering on sports, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that you cannot win at sports betting. The fact is that sports betting is one of the very few forms of gambling that you can win at. The others are horse racing, and poker. Creating an edge in sports betting isn’t easy but those that put the necessary time in can help you maximize your sports betting profits, by understanding certain factors that can help swing the odds in your favor.

It’s no secret that football and basketball are the two sports that receive the majority of the betting dollars, just as it’s no secret that most long-time sports bettors will say those are probably the two toughest sports to show a long-term profit in. The sport of choice for most professional gamblers is baseball, which happens to rank well below the top two sports in the amount of money received. Hockey is another sport that many long-time bettors believe can give the sports gambler an advantage over the sportsbook, but hockey nets less than even baseball.

A sports bettor doesn’t have to particularly like baseball or hockey. As long as they like money, those are two sports that should be followed, or at least find somebody who is a good baseball or hockey handicapper and follow their plays.

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Capitalizing On Steam Moves

Steam Move is a term used to describe when a sudden, drastic and uniform line move is made across the board. Steam is the result of the sudden overload of money placed on multiple sports books and in most cases and the majority of the times the public will attempt to chase that steam in order to capitalize on the opportunity. The key is to know when to chase the steam and when to wait. In some instances, the sharp bettors will put a lot of money on one line in order to push it a certain way and then bet the other way with even more money in order to capitalize on the line changes. There are plenty of websites that provide insight in to line movements as well as public betting percentages and by keeping track of those numbers you can really know when to chase the steam and when to hold back.

Bet with your head, not your heart

It sounds so simple, but so many people just can’t do it. On many occasions, you will see people make futures bets on their hometown team because they are getting such great odds. Of course, they may be getting 30-1 odds when the true odds are 100-1.

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Best Bets To The NCAA Final Four

Best Bets To The NCAA Final FourThe three-day break between rounds calls for a deep dive into what’s transpired so far. Talking Points combed through the numbers and results to find some of the most pertinent information bettors can use to make informed decisions and make the best bets to the 2017 NCAA final four.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (+135): The Bulldogs made it to the “Elite 8” last year for just the second time in its program’s history. Now they’ll be pursuing a first ever ‘Final Four” appearance.

You can make a reasonable argument against them, and say they play in a conference that’s less than inspiring beyond its top 3 teams. Nevertheless, Gonzaga does own non-conference wins over #20 Florida, #17 Iowa State, and #4 Arizona.

Furthermore, they went 3-0 against this season against #22 St. Mary’s, and won all 3 contests by double-digit margins.

Arizona (+150): If there a team in this bracket with a serious chance of knocking off Gonzaga it’s Arizona. The Wildcats can potentially have a chance to revenge their regular season loss to Gonzaga in the West Regional Final.

Kansas (+150): The Jayhawks were inexplicably upset in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Quarterfinals by a TCU team that had lost 7 of their preceding 8 games. It’s usually boom or bust for Kansas in the NCAA Tournament.

One of the March Madness predictions calls for Purdue to knock them off in the Midwest Regional Semifinals.

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Purdue (+500): Speaking of the Boilermakers, they’ve been in 10 games this season that have been decided by 5 points or less, and they went 6-4 in those contests. The ability and confidence in knowing how to win close games at NCAA Tournament time is invaluable.

Furthermore, Purdue went a respectable 6-5 this season versus teams made the NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina (-104): If the Tar Heels bring their “A game”, there’s no team in this region that will beat them. North Carolina should have smooth sailing to the South Regional Final.

It’s there they’ll face their stiffest challenge from either UCLA or Kentucky.

Kentucky (+195): “One and Done University” will once again be a legitimate national title contender. After already having their hands against a surging Wichita State team, Kentucky faces uber-phenom the Lonzo Ball-UCLA Bruins who already handed them a 97-92 loss in Lexington earlier this season.

UCLA (+500): As if all the hype and constant chatter of the forementioned Ball and his father, LaVar isn’t enough, any time you have a major conference team like UCLA that puts up a plethora of points (90.4 PPG) on a game to game basis, and they own a win percentage of better than .750, nobody is going to be lining up to play them.

As a matter of fact, as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament, teams like the 11-time national champion Bruins are that rare breed in that regard.

The Bruins are young, but they’re supremely talented, and advancing to the 2017 Final Four is a very realistic expectation. Make the best bets to the NCAA final four at WagerWeb.ag

Sports Betting Tips: Parlays

Sports Betting Tips: ParlaysSports betting is great because not only is entertaining but often you can make some profit. Among the different types of bet there are there is one which is the most popular of the sports wagers that are considered exotic. The fact that they offer such a potentially large payout at such a small risk is what entices sports fans and makes parlays so common. In essence, a parlay is a collection of two or more sports betting picks on the same ticket and all of them have to win order for it to be considered a winning ticket. Therefore, if you place a four-team parlay then all four teams have to win in order for the parlay to be considered a winner. When it comes down to it, getting three of the four selections right is no better than getting none of the selections right because it takes being a perfect 4-for-4 in order to collect on the potential payout. Get all the latest Betting and Sport News updates on your social media outlets. Find us on Facebook.

Money Line Parlays

Money line parlays are very straight forward as they are simply a collection of individual money line plays strung together as part of the same ticket. However, the potential payout can vary widely depending on the prices of the selections that you make. For example, if you were to string together four substantial favorites on the same money line parlay then the potential payout wouldn’t be as big as if you strung together four substantial underdogs. To put it in the simplest possible terms, the money line parlays take the amount of money that you wager and place all of that money on one team. If that teams wins, it recalculates your bet amount on the next team, again placing your entire wager on that team. The majority of sportsbooks will accept money line parlays for anywhere from two to 13 teams but the limits can vary across the board.

Point Spread Parlays

The point spread parlay is similar to the money line parlay in that it is a string of anywhere from two to 13 individual wagers on the same ticket in order to increase the potential payout. However, unlike the money line parlays the potential payout for the point spread parlays is usually a set amount. The point spread is a way for sportsbooks to attempt to even the two sides of the betting equation so there really isn’t a need to follow the same formula as the money line parlay.

There is a risk versus reward every time that you make a parlay bet. The potential payout is a lot bigger and that is a good thing. However, the more teams that are on the parlay the greater the risk and the less likely it is that you will win. Money line parlays are calculated based on the individual odds of the game so it isn’t necessarily that much better of an idea to bet a money line parlay over simply taking teams straight up. Sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

Celtics vs Pacers NBA Action

Celtics vs Pacers NBA ActionThe Boston Celtics will aim for a fifth straight home victory tonight when they host the Indiana Pacers as 8 1/2-point favorites at sportsbooks.

Boston opened its longest homestand of the season Monday with a 110-102 win over the Washington Wizards as four-point chalk, improving its lead over the third-place Wizards to 2.5 games in the Eastern Conference going into Wednesday’s Pacers vs. Celtics betting matchup at TD Garden.

The Celtics are 3-1 SU in their past four games against Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 or fewer points on three occasions while surrendering over 100 points just three times in their past 25 meetings in Boston.

Boston’s current home surge has been powered by a tight defense that has limited visiting squads to just 96.25 points per game. With the point total being regularly set well above 210, the UNDER also has been a strong wager, going 3-1-0 in the Celtics’ past four home dates and 6-2-1 over the past nine. That trend extends to recent visits by the Pacers.

The Pacers travel to Boston on a high following Monday’s 107-100 win over the Utah Jazz as two-point home underdogs, which leaves the Pacers one game back of the fifth-place Atlanta Hawks.

The Boston Celtics continue to improve their playoff positioning by winning big games late in the season, and they’ll be forced to knock off another Eastern Conference contender with Paul George and the Indiana Pacers in town tonight.

Sportsbooks opened the Pacers as 7.5-point underdogs with an OVER/UNDER of 209.

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The Pacers are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games on the road against the Celtics.

The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Pacers’ last eight games against the Celtics.

The Pacers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games after a win.

The Celtics, who are only two games behind Cleveland for the No. 1 spot in the East, are coming off a huge win over the third-place Washington Wizards on Monday. All-star point guard Isaiah Thomas returned from a brief two-game absence in that game to drop 25 on the Wiz as the Celts pulled 2 1/2 games ahead of Washington in the process.

The Pacers, who occupy the sixth position, are a completely different team on the road compared to playing at home. Indiana is a brutal 11-23 SU on the road this season – one of the worst records in the Association. Indy is 13-21 ATS in that span.

Boston battles the Indiana Pacers, currently with a 36-34 mark (32-38 ATS). The OVER/UNDER records, important for totals betting, are 32-36-3 for the Boston Celtics and 33-37 for the Indiana Pacers.

Offensively the game matches up Boston’s No. 8-ranked offense (107.39 PPG) against a Indiana Pacers defense that ranks No. 15 at 104.99 PPG. The Boston Celtics have averaged 45.21% from the field per game, less than the Indiana Pacers have managed so far this NBA season (46.26% on average). WagerWeb.ag.

March Madness – Betting Against the Public

March Madness - Betting Against the PublicThis is when it really makes sense to analyze all betting structures, in a short period of time there is some truly heavy traffic driving the madness to everyone. Betting Against the Public is pretty simple. More often than not, the public loses. They bet with their gut instinct (which is a losing strategy). They care about things that don’t matter (recent performance, who has more star players). They also love betting home teams, favorites and overs, which always creates added value on dogs, visitors and unders.

In turn, the Vegas casinos and offshore sportsbooks make money when the public loses. Year in and year out, the casinos and books make a killing. As they say, the house always wins.

As a result, fading the public is a sound strategy because you are taking advantage of public bias and putting yourself on the side of the books and casinos. You are also getting good numbers because public perception often inflates lines, giving brave contrarian bettors an extra half point or full point for free.

However, you can’t go contrarian in every single game (if only it were that easy). You need to be careful and selective and only do it in the most heavily bet games on the board. The more heavily bet (and lopsided) a game is, the more value there is to bet against the public and go the other way.

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Example: Say you have two basketball games with the same exact bet split (80% on one side, 20% on the other). The teams getting 20% would be more valuable due to the lopsided percentages and contrarian value. However, if Game 1 has 25,000 bets and Game 2 has 2,000 bets, you would only want to go contrarian in Game 1. Although Game 2 has lopsided betting (which we like), the bet count is so low that we would suggest laying off because there isn’t enough public action to warrant a “fade the public” play.

Betting against the public is incredibly successful during March Madness because every single game is extremely heavily bet. Square bettors come out of the woodwork and get down hard on these games, causing the ticket counts to skyrocket (on average, these games are getting 20-40K bets, similar to an NFL game). As a result, contrarian value spikes. Non-stop media coverage also increases bias among public bettors, elevating contrarian value even higher.

Simply put, March Madness is the best time of year to fade the public.

So far, teams getting less than 40% of spread bets have gone 19-9 ATS in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Historically, teams getting less than 20% do even better. Betting against the public becomes even more profitable if you can incorporate sharp action.

Fading the public has been incredibly successful throughout the Tournament so far. The games will only get more attention and media hype, causing the number of bets to skyrocket even higher, creating the perfect storm to bet against the public. Sign up now at WagerWeb.ag.

2017 MLB Futures

2017 MLB FuturesMLB is getting closer and it’s perfect timing for looking at what is coming for the season. Pitching and defense. Those two aspects of the game have become the foundations of New York Mets baseball and what has propelled them to back-to-back winning seasons for the first time this decade. Rest assured, armed with one of the best pitching staffs in the game, we’ll get another winning season in 2017.

This will largely be the same team we saw in 2016 as the Mets didn’t exactly make waves in the free-agent market by bringing in new names, but they did lock up Yoenis Cespedes, which is by far the most significant transaction of the offseason for the club.

The Mets have made postseason appearances the previous two seasons. They lost the 2015 World Series 4-1 against the Kansas City Royals and were dispatched by the San Francisco Giants in the National League wild-card game last season. Is that a sign of the Mets regressing? Probably not, however, with the Washington Nationals looking like an extremely stiff test in the National League East, 2017 is set to be an interesting season in the Big Apple.

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World Series +1400

The Mets are the fifth National League team on the board at +1400 behind the Chicago Cubs (+450), Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000), Nationals (+1100) and San Francisco Giants (+1100).

Again, pitching will be key for this team if they are going to make a run at it. The pitching staff boasted the third-best ERA in the bigs last season and ranks at or near the top in the senior circuit in virtually every pitching category you can throw out there.

If talented arms like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed are as effective as they were last season, this team can go places. Top to bottom, you can put the Mets staff up against any from across the MLB landscape.

The offense, however, really just lags a little compared with most of the teams ahead of them on the futures board. The Mets are in the bottom third of NL offenses when it comes to stats like runs, batting average and on-base percentage. Oddly enough, they only trailed the St. Louis Cardinals in home runs in the NL and we could see more of the long ball if we get full seasons out of Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda.

This team has the pieces to make a serious run at the World Series. I think the Mets are better than one or two NL clubs in front of them on the futures board so I like the price here in late March.

Total 88.5

This is a good number for the Mets considering they won 87 last year and 90 in their NL East-winning 2015 season.

Although both the Braves and Phillies should be improved, the Mets rack up more wins versus the NL East than they did last year. New York went just 40-36 in the division last year and a lackluster 12-21 against the NL West. Sign up at WagerWeb.ag and get ready for the 2017 MLB futures.

Improve Your Sports Betting

Improve Your Sports BettingFrom strategies to good luck charms, everyone is after the answer to make a profit in sports betting. Read on as we’re happy to tell you more about one of the biggest secrets to improve your sports betting. It really is simple, and the truth is that this strategy lies in the numbers beyond the numbers. It’s something that nobody talks about but could change the way that you look at betting on sports forever. There is a strong case that suggests the amount of money you bet is actually more important than what you bet your money on.

The Proportional Betting System

Five popular betting methods were broken down using a series of 500 bets for each of them and the results all pointed towards The five systems including betting everything every time, betting fixed wagers, using the Martingale system, using the Fibonacci system and using the Proportional Betting System and by far the most successful system was the last one. The Proportional Betting System requires betting a fraction of your bankroll proportion to your edge. In the simulation, the bet divided the edge by the odds. For example, if the edge is 10% and the odds are even, 10/1 is 10. Therefore 10% of the $1,000 wallet should be bet, which is $100. Should that bet be successful, the next bet would increase to $110 – 10% of the new $1,100 wallet. This means that the winnings will increase quicker than in the fixed-wager system and the losses will be slowed down since you will only be risking $10 of your total wallet at all times.

Why It Is Smarter

Betting everything from the outset could net some big gains if they lead to big winners from the outset but by the same token it will take only a couple of losses to be completely bankrupt. There is no such thing as a betting limit and since even the best sports bettors will lose at least once eventually it will only be a matter of time before you are bankrupt. Meanwhile, the Fibonacci and Martingale systems are both progressive but they truly require a strong start. The bigger the losses, the bigger the increased stake and according o those systems it is only a matter of time before you are bankrupt as well. The only system other that kept players from going bankrupt at some point through 500 simulations was the betting fixed wagers system. However, there was not a lot to show for the wins and losses and it simply didn’t make sense to try and use that strategy rather than the Proportional Betting System.

Conclusion

The simulations showed how the different stakes fared over the long run and it was clear that the best method for betting on sports was the Proportional Betting System. That system still allows players to make big gains but it also makes the risk proportionate to the amount of money in your bankroll so any potential losses along the way are limited.

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You need to remember the importance of knowing your edge and that even with the best system in place there is no such thing as a guaranteed way to make money by betting on sports. It requires patience, knowledge and a sufficient enough bankroll as well. However, the Proportional Betting System is an excellent way to improve your odds of success and if used properly it could be your key to making some significant gains betting on sports over the course of time. Sign up to WagerWeb.ag and improve your sports betting.

Team Betting Preview

Team Betting PreviewAs we get closer to the MLB season it’s time to do some analysis on the teams as it will help us to get ready for some betting action. Starting with the Washington Nationals, a team that’s been on the cusp of something special since they first won the division for the first time in their new city back in 2012 but that hasn’t been able to get it done in October, going 0-3 in the postseason in their three playoff series since moving to D.C.

In fact, as an organization, the Nationals haven’t won a playoff series since 1981 when they were one of Canada’s two MLB franchises. That Montreal Expos team lost to the Dodgers en route to LA’s second-to-last World Series and the Expos’ win over the Phillies in the NLDS was the club’s first and last playoff series win.

But this season the Nationals things aren’t easy, it is the World Series or bust. They mortgaged the future for center-fielder Adam Eaton by trading two of the best pitching prospects in baseball and it looks like they’ll lose their superstar slugger Bryce Harper to free agency at the end of the year.

Expect management in Washington to sell the farm if the Nats are in contention near the trade deadline as they’ll need a few more pieces if they want to compete with the likes of the Cubs and Dodgers in a very top-heavy National League.

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This is the Team betting preview. The Nationals’ futures odds for 2017:

World Series +1100

Washington’s lineup is scary front to back and with the combination of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg heading an extremely talented five-man rotation, it’s hard to think of reasons why this team wouldn’t compete for a World Series.

Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office in Chicago managed to pull off the best rebuild of a sports franchise I’ve ever seen in my 24 years on this planet and it’s set them up to be a dynasty for a very long time. The Cubs are the current measuring stick for every other club in the majors and if we’re talking holistically, the Nationals come the closest in terms of the talent on their 25-man roster.

National League Pennant +500

Why the odds for the Nationals to win the World Series are more than double their odds to win the NL pennant, we do not know. If they manage to get to the final series of the year, the Nats will already have beaten the best team in the majors – the Cubs – and considering the NL has beaten the AL in five of the last seven World Series, it doesn’t look like the designated hitter is going to make a significant difference against the Nats if they make it that far.

The big problem for Washington is they’ve never won a league pennant and their manager has a career postseason winning percentage well below .500. Get ready for the action, sign up to WagerWeb.ag and stay tuned for more team betting previews.

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