Category Archives: Sports

Sports Betting – Profitable Practices

Sports Betting - Profitable PracticesHedging is often considered an advanced investing strategy, but the principles of hedging are fairly simple. With the popularity of hedge funds, the practice of hedging is becoming more widespread. In sports betting is ne of the most profitable practices which makes the fact that the majority of the betting public does not use the tool that much more surprising. Hedging is quite simply an investment position intended to offset potential losses and improve potential gains based on an outcome that is yet to be decided. The very best professional sports bettors do an excellent job of reducing their risks across the board by securing winnings through hedging in order to secure profits.

The concept of hedge betting involves placing bets on different outcomes subsequent to an original bet in order to create a situation where there is a guaranteed profit regardless of what the outcome of the event is. Circumstances are always changing in sports and the best bettors are those that are able to identify these changes and make the necessary adjustments. Get all the latest Sports Betting updates on your social media outlets. Find us on Facebook!

For example, let’s pretend the San Diego Chargers are favored to beat the Oakland Raiders at home by 3.5 points and you take them to cover the spread. Entering the third quarter, the Chargers are up by 14 points when star quarterback Phillip Rivers is injured. At this point, the in-game line will have been adjusted based on the score and the fact that Rivers is hurt. Let’s pretend that the line at this point moves to Chargers -9.5 points. In this situation, hedge betting would require taking the Raiders to cover the 9.5 points with the hope that the final score ends up in the middle. The fact that you have locked in San Diego at -3.5 and Oakland at +9.5 means that there is no possible way to lose money. However, if the Chargers win by 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 points then both wagers hit and you will win both bets. It’s a simple concept that isn’t applied nearly enough by the public but hedge betting does work.

Another interesting approach to hedge betting is taking the winner of a tournament. Let’s use tennis as an example. Anybody that takes Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon will get him at fairly short odds. In this example, we will use Djokovic at +400 to win Wimbledon. The strategy for hedge betting on a tournament winner is to follow their path to the later rounds and then decide when is best to cover your bases. In this case, we will wait until Djokovic plays a tough match in the semi-final in order to hedge our $100 bet. In the semi-final, we will put $75 on Djokovic’s opponent with a potential payout of $100. If Djokovic wins, then our $100 bet to win $400 on him winning the tournament is still in play. If Djokovic loses, then the $75 hedge bet we have made on his opponent will cover the $100 w lost betting on Djokovic to win the tournament.

Hedge betting is a very popular tool among professional sports bettors, it certainly is one profitable practice, put it to use at Betregal.com.

World Series Future Bets

World Series Future BetsIn just one week, MLB will be back. Sure, it’s only Spring Training, but baseball is baseball. Spring games are fun in their own way, especially for prospect watchers.

As we get closer to it, is time for baseball bettors to start prepping for another season. The first step is doing some research so you can optimize your value and cash in with some smart wagers.

The Chicago Cubs will rightfully enter the season as the favorite to win the World Series at most sportsbooks, but history proves that it’s not often the favorite or the best team that goes on to win it all. Last season’s Cubs team contradicts this, of course, as they were the favorite for the majority of the season, but here’s a few factors to consider before placing a World Series future bet.

One would imagine that teams that did poorly last year will not be heavily bet on this season. Some bettors get wide-eyed and full of ambition when they see their favorite ball club offering a ton of value somewhere on the second half of the oddsboard. Most of those teams had losing records in 2016, which is a major red flag since it’s only happened twice in the last 13 years that a team had a losing record, then went on to win the World Series the following year.

Similar to the above, there are teams that did not have a great season but could definitely have a better season this year as they have a lot of strong points. You’re likely leaning toward one of last season’s playoff teams for your World Series prediction, but it might surprise you to hear that only two teams since 2009 made the playoffs the year before winning the World Series. Going back even further, to the beginning of the wild-card era in 1995, less than 50% of World Series winners made the playoffs the year before.

So, we’re looking for teams that were better than .500 last season but didn’t qualify for the playoffs. Get all the latest Betting and Sport News updates on your social media outlets. Find us on Facebook.

Many will argue that the magic number is 69, but that type of thinking doesn’t apply to strategic World Series futures betting. The magic number is 86 as the average win total of teams the year before winning the World Series since 2000 is 86.47. It is surprising to see that only four teams during that span had 90 wins or more the year before winning the World Series, while nine had between 83 and 89 wins the year before.

With all that said, here’s the list of teams that meet this criteria:

New York Yankees +2500

Detroit Tigers +3300

Seattle Mariners +3300

Houston Astros +1400

New York Mets +1800

St. Louis Cardinals +2200

San Francisco Giants +1200

There it is, good luck with your MLB World Series future bets and as the season progresses come back here for more tips, sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

Optimism Bias In Sports Betting

Optimism Bias In Sports BettingThere are numerous reasons that drive people to bet, in this regard experiments have been conducted to try to comprehend the human mind and it’s behaviors. Some of these are where pigeons are given a choice between two buttons with each distributing food. One button will give food every ten presses, making for a factory style work-reward system. The other button will distribute food at random number of presses, with somewhere between three and twenty presses needed to distribute food. Even though the random button will take more presses than the factory style button experiments have shown that the majority of pigeons will go for the gamble once they have learned the functionality of both buttons.

The second reason why people love to bet so much on sports is because people love sports but the bottom line remains the allure of the potential profits, which drives the billion-dollar business on an annual basis. Here we talk about the effects of optimism bias in sports betting.

Optimism bias is the tendency to think that we are less at risk of experiencing something negative than others. It exists in all aspects of life when human beings think that they can’t be the subject of a negative experience the way that other people can be. Meanwhile when it comes to positive events, the human brain tends to exaggerate the potential for a low probability event to occur in their favor. The lottery is the perfect example of this since millions of players spend billions of dollars on an annual basis for the chance to win a big prize even though they are very unlikely to actually win.

Studies have shown that the human brain struggles to deal with small odds. They aren’t nearly as concerned when it comes to winning a smaller prize as they would be with the allure of winning a big prize, even if they had a better chance to win the smaller price. The odds for winning the lottery could be as slim as one in 14 million, yet so many people make a point to get their ticket on a weekly basis. In fact, if somebody were to spend $1000 on a lottery ticket for $1 a ticket every weekend for 270 years, they would on average be expected to win one jackpot. That number can be reduced to account for the lifespan of a human being and it is telling how much money people can save just by not playing the lottery.

The problem with sports betting is that the optimism bias is enhanced by factors that are perceived to have a greater impact than they actually do.

There is also an issue with the idea of the “near miss”. The brain often perceives a near miss in sports betting as an indicator of a greater chance for future success when in reality it means nothing at all. The human brain can actually be fooled in to believing that the chances of winning are greater than they are based on irrelevant criteria. It is important to understand the optimism bias to avoid falling into traps in sports betting. Sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

Future Odds – Cubs Are Favorite

Future Odds – Cubs Are FavoriteIt’s been nearly three months since the epic night in Cleveland that featured all sorts of dramatic twists and turns and finally saw the Chicago Cubs put an end to a historic drought.

Now as the Cubs head toward Arizona for the start of spring training, we wonder if it will be another 108 years between titles, oddsmakers seem optimistic though, they are currently the heavy favorite at sportsbooks to win the 2017 World Series and defend their Major League Baseball (MLB) title.

This is not to guarantee a title, and Cub fans should be warned repeating is tough. Nobody has done it since the New York Yankees from 1998 to 2000, and a repeat champion only occurred five times since divisional play was instituted in 1969.

Even recent teams with multiple championships find it hard to repeat. The San Francisco Giants won titles in 2010, 2012 and 2104 but missed the playoffs in each season following a title.

The Boston Red Sox won titles in 2004, 2007 and 2013. The only time they were close to repeating was reaching Game 7 of the 2008 American League Championship Series.

Still, even with the numerous challenges of reaching the postseason and winning the required 11 games, the Cubs almost certainly will be in contention for the title again.

Both Nevada and online sportsbooks like the Chicago Cubs’ chances of repeating. Vegas always like a winner, and when it comes to writing odds on professional sports futures, the oddsmakers tend to favor the team holding the most recent championship trophy. And that is especially holding true for the Cubbies, one of the most popular baseball franchises in the US. Get all the latest Betting and Sport News updates on your social media outlets. Find us on Facebook.

Similar to the Green Bay Packers in NFL season-long betting, the Cubs routinely attract much preseason action on their title dreams. Part of that was due to the team’s ended drought, but the Windy City organization also has one of the largest fan bases in the US.

Online sportsbooks put the Cubs’ over/under regular season win total at 95.5. The team Chicago beat in last fall’s World Series, the Cleveland Indians, comes in second at 92.5.

Those looking to take an underdog can go with the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies (72.5), Atlanta Braves (71.5), Minnesota Twins (70.5), Oakland Athletics (66.5), and the league-worst San Diego Padres at 64.5.

Some online books already have odds on all 30 teams’ MLB title chances.

The Cubs are the favorite at numerous online sportsbooks, which posts them at +450 to win the 2017 World Series. That means a $100 bet today would return $450 next fall should Chicago once again be singing “Go Cubs Go!” in November.

A few differences between books is that some like the Boston Red Sox over the Indians in the American League. Perhaps due to heavier betting from the larger fan base in Massachusetts, but all seem to coincide with the Cubs. Make your own prediction at WagerWeb.ag

Performance And The Closing Line

Performance And The Closing LineTracking closing lines is often one of the overlooked aspects of successful sports betting .The importance of evaluating your performance against the closing odds can provide some key insight that could help to put you over the top in the sports betting forum. Did you bet too early and get a worse price? Did you bet late and find that you got a better line as a result? This is important to track so that you can get a better understanding of the market, the movement and timing.

The first step the sportsbooks take when setting a line for a specific event is to set the opening odds based on statistical analysis of the team’s past performances, factoring in any other relevant information that could impact the outcome of the event including injuries and other factors. Once the odds become available, the players bet on the markets they consider the best value. This second step is important because it results in the sportsbooks then adjusting their numbers based on how their odds are perceived on the market. The sportsbooks don’t want to receive too much exposure so they will adjust their odds in order to make sure they get as much action on both sides as possible. The odds released just before a game are called closing lines. The closing lines reflect all of the statistics, news, injuries, wagering activities and the market sentiment. The closing line is the most efficient point of the market and therefore it is the most accurate representation of what to expect.

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In order to most accurately predict the results of sports betting events, the top handicappers identify bets with positive expected value. These are bets that have a bigger chance of winning than the odds indicate. Here is a look at the formula that is used to calculate the probability of making a profit on a given event:

(Amount of Bet) x [(Odds for X -1) x (probability for X) – 1 x (probability for Y)] =

According to this formula, you take the amount you will bet and multiply it by the odds for one result minus one, then times it by the probably for one result. Take that number and subtract the probability for the second result and you will have your number. If the expected value is a positive number, betting on this market will likely result in making a profit. If the expected value is a negative number, betting this market is more likely to end with a negative outcome.

According to the efficient market hypothesis the closing odds are on average more accurate than the opening odds when it comes to predicting how an event will play out. The efficient market theory is used in the financial markets to dictate efficient markets and it also works when it comes to predicting sports events. There is no such thing as a guaranteed outcome in sports but the probability models help to improve the odds of making a profit. Smart sports bettors will use these numbers in order to both use the closing odds as a guide and beat the closing odds by making a profit. Sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

NCAA Provides Betting Value

NCAA Provides Betting ValueFootball season is the busiest time of the year in sports betting, no news here… According to the UNLV Center for Gaming Research, Las Vegas sportsbooks make nearly half of their revenue from football bettors despite the comparatively short season. From 1992 to 2016, $28.3 billion was wagered on football as compared to $18.4 billion on basketball and $14.0 billion on baseball. This doesn’t include the astronomical figure that online gambling represents, this year the estimate for super bowl was over $4 billion.

Once the football season ends many bettors cash out with their bookie or sportsbook as they eagerly await the following season. However, a good portion of bettors turn their attention to basketball especially when the NCAA Tournament rolls around.

Some published data states that following the conclusion of the football season, “college basketball betting increases at around a 25 percent clip”. The value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game, so using some historic data we can see if this data is accurate.

Looking at records of some online sportsbooks the number of bets per game steadily increases as the season progresses. The average number of bets placed is fairly low in November, December, and January when bettors are preoccupied with the ongoing football season. The average number of bets increases by just under 25% between January and February. The number of bets then doubles between February and March. That increase in volume is particularly impressive when you consider that there are many smaller tournaments (like the NIT, CIT, and CBI) which limit that average. In fact, the average number of bets during the NCAA Tournament is nearly 30,000!

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Sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the action of their sharpest bettors, and they won’t move the number based on public money unless there’s a marquee matchup with one-sided public betting and limited sharp action on the other side. There are many factors to consider when betting against the public, but the ticket count is consistently one of the most crucial.

There are relatively few square bettors early in the college basketball regular season, so oddsmakers will usually adjust their lines based on sharp action. It’s only in the most heavily bet games featuring extremely lopsided public betting that you can find value going against the grain. With football season over and more casual bettors jumping into college basketball, there’s additional value betting against the public in these later months.

Since oddsmakers can accurately anticipate one-sided action from public bettors, they react by shading lines to force these bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game. This shading creates added value for bettors willing to go against the grain and fade the public. The NCAA provides value betting, apply these principles to your betting strategy and sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

Types Of Tennis Bets

Types Of Tennis Bets

For those that are ready to enjoy betting on one of the most prestigious sport in the world there is one category in particular that attracts most of attention, the Grand Slam Tournaments. Four highly reputable tournaments that take place every year and of which one has already happened this year, the Australian Open was left behind in January, the other three that you can look forward are the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open. Of course up until then you can still take part in the action with the ATP tour, with three of them happening:

ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament

Rotterdam, Netherlands

2017.02.13 – 2017.02.19

Memphis Open

Memphis, TN, U.S.A.

2017.02.13 – 2017.02.19

Argentina Open

Buenos Aires, Argentina

2017.02.13 – 2017.02.19

With all this action it only makes sense to provide the public with a primer for handicapping tennis tournaments. Here is a look at the types of tennis bets available to sports betting fans.

The success of the top players in the tennis world could tempt beginner sports bettors to attempt to roll with the favorites in every single match at a tournament like the French open but it’s important to understand why that is not a good idea. The favorites are usually available at very short odds, which means very little return on investment.

One interesting type of bet that the professional handicappers rely on in tennis is handicap betting. This option is available when a huge favorite plays an underdog with low odds that are usually not very attractive to bettors. To counter the difference in the players’ abilities, the sportsbooks will offer a handicap market which refers to the number of games each player is expected to win. In this way, the chance of either playing winning – pricing in the handicap-becomes as close to 50% as possible. For example, if Djokovic were to play an unseated opponent he could be listed at minus-four games. This means that Djokovic has to win four more games than his opponent in order to be considered a winner. This type of wager makes the handicap bet that much more attractive and an alternate option to picking winners straight up.

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The handicap bets can be listed as positive or negative depending on the market. While some bettors will still prefer to take Djokovic to win by at least five games or more against his opponent as the favorite, there is also the option of taking his opponent win enough games to cover the four-game spread. These types of handicap bets are excellent in situations where the underdog is projected to give a legitimate challenge to the favorite whether its based on talent, fatigue or any other relevant circumstance.

The majority of beginner bettors will spend their time picking winners straight up but it’s important to know there are different options available. The handicap betting market provides a different set of options for tennis fans and the opportunity to bet on favorites without having to pay so much juice on each individual line. With Grand Slam tournaments on the way and ATP action available, now is the perfect time to get in to the action and decide whether the handicap bet is the perfect alternative when it comes to betting on tennis. Sign up now at WagerWeb.ag

NBA Finals – Betting Strategies

NBA Finals – Betting Strategies

As many bettors anticipated the 2016-17 NBA campaign is shaping up as the powerhouse teams in the Western and Eastern conferences have risen to the top of the ranks heading into the all-star break. When it comes to gauging which teams are going to collide in the NBA Finals, sportsbooks are already offering odds on the series and to take those odds in a smart way we suggest you take into consideration certain strategies.

Research has proven that betting against the public will produce a positive return on investment, many articles explain why this is and even here we’ve talked bout it, however many bettors are confused about why this is such a successful strategy.

Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Throughout the day, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line.

The public loves betting favorites and overs, which is why most of our contrarian strategies will focus on underdogs and unders. In fact, the majority of spread bettors have taken the underdog in just 22.5% of games since the start of the 2005 season. That said, it’s been highly profitable to take favorites when they’re been widely ignored by public bettors.

Most oddsmakers are able to anticipate which games will take one-sided public betting, so they will shade their opening lines to account for the predictable flood of public money. If the liability becomes too great, they will occasionally adjust their number to encourage action on the other side, thereby mitigating some of their risk. That’s where the contrarian bettor jumps in.

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Sportsbooks aren’t in the business of minimizing risk; they’re in the business of maximizing profits. That means sportsbooks won’t adjust their number based on public betting unless there’s massive liability on one side. In other words, college basketball bettors can’t blindly bet against the public they need to target the most heavily bet games of the day.

Taking into consideration a winning strategy is that you can start getting ready to take on the odds that books have set for NBA possible contenders.

The Cavs (37-16 at the time of writing) and Warriors (46-9) have met in the last two Finals, with each side hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy once. This possible match is the front runner at -127 odds.

Golden State is on a revenge tour after collapsing last year, and it’s hard to picture them blowing a 3-1 lead again now that superstar Kevin Durant is in the fold.

The Cavs vs Spurs (+724), Celtics vs Warriors (+1370), Cavs vs Rockets (+2000), Wizards vs Warriors (+2170), Raptors vs Warriors (+2170), Cavs vs Clippers (+3400), Hawks vs Warriors (+3750), Cavs vs Jazz (+4300) and Cavs vs Grizzlies (+5750) are the next likeliest matchups according to online books that have considered. Find the best strategy for betting on the NBA finals, sign up at WagerWeb.ag

The Fibonacci Sports Betting System

The Fibonacci Sports Betting SystemThe best football soccer of the world gets back to the field this week with the UEFA Champions league round 16, which means lots of entertainment and lots of betting opportunities. In times like this people look for betting systems and strategies trying to get the edge, one of the popular systems is the Fibonacci. But the truth is that the Fibonacci Betting System doesn’t guarantee any sort of return, but there are certain personality types that will benefit more from this system. The reason is that there are some bad gamblers out there that make a habit of betting, winning, and then losing it all. There are also gamblers that have a habit of chasing a loss.

The strategy of the system is to bet on a draw, and if you lose you bet on another one. You then repeat that process until you eventually win. The only additional rules for the system including that you only bet on draws when the probability is above 2.618 and that you increase your betting stake in a way that follows the Fibonacci sequence of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so forth. This idea is based on a theory from 1989 that the draw is the most difficult for sportsbooks to predict and therefore can be exploited. The general concept is that as long as you continually increase your stake any win will overcome previous losses.

To better illustrate the logic of the system let’s analyze the results of the 2011/12 Premier League season. Get all the latest Betting and Sport News updates on your social media outlets. Find us on Facebook.

Over the course of the 380-game season, there were 93 games that ended in draws. That number translates to 24.5% of all games ending in a draw. One of the most interesting aspects of the numbers is that the odds for every single draw were above the 2.618 odds number that the Fibonacci system requires as a low point. According to the numbers, there should be a payout for one in every four Premier League games for the 2011-12 season. This means the winning stake would be the fourth number in the Fibonacci system as 3. The total bet each time would be $7 (after 1, 1 and 2). Considering the average odds for a draw over the course of the entire season, the average winnings would be around $12. Over the course of the entire 380-game season, the total profit should be around $1,700 which all results from an original bet of $1. Those are pretty good numbers in theory and they indicate the Fibonacci soccer stakes betting method actually does work.

While the system should hit 24.5% of the time there is no guarantee that number is 1 in every 4 linear bets rather than a combined 4 of every 16 with potential extended droughts breaking them up.

The best approach to the Fibonacci soccer stakes betting method is to use it as a mathematical concept. There is no such thing as a sports betting system that guarantees victory but the Fibonacci betting method provides the perfect model to follow in order to make a profit on a consistent basis. Be part of the action of the UEFA champions league at WagerWeb.ag

World Baseball Classic Betting Odds

World Baseball Classic Betting OddsSports betting fans get to see all the season changes throughout the year, football season ends, but things gear up for NCAAB march madness, MLB spring trainings begin and prior to the baseball fever when the MLB season begins we will have the opportunity to see the best baseball nations in the world come together once again to battle it out for supremacy in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. This fourth iteration of the event will take place over the course of 16 days from March 6 to 22. Of the 16 teams in the event, 14 will be making their fourth appearance while Colombia and Israel will be making their WBC debut.

Once the World Baseball Classic rosters are out, it didn’t take long for the oddsmakers in Las Vegas to do what they do best: Figure out how people can bet on this thing. Not even 24 hours later, the odds have arrived, and the news is that the team led by Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey, Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton is the favorite as it looks for its first-ever WBC title.

Odds are tight near the top, but Team USA is a +200 favorite to be the last squad standing. The US, which has never finished higher than fourth in the event, is stacked with MLB talent from top to bottom. Infield depth may be Team USA’s biggest strength, as the likes of Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Daniel Murphy will be suiting up for the club.

The defending champions come from the Dominican Republic (+250) and their all-star roster. Though pitching may be an issue for the club, their hitting is undeniable with Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz forming one of the most terrifying lineups you could imagine.

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Japan (+300) is close behind the USA and Dominican, as the two-time winners have never finished worse than third in the event. The roster features plenty of unknowns for most North Americans but is loaded with the elite players in the Nippon Professional Baseball league. The most intriguing player on the roster, who could soon be making his way to the MLB, is 22-year-old Shohei Otani. The youngster is quickly developing a cult following, as he has dominated both as a pitcher (career 2.49 ERA) and a DH (career .275 BA with 40 home runs).

One team to keep an eye on is Venezuela (+900). Two teams from each pool advance to the next round and Venezuela is in a relatively weak pool featuring Mexico, Italy and Puerto Rico. Venezuela should easily make it out of the first round but will have a tough task, as they will be competing against the top teams in Pool C (likely USA and Dominican Republic). However, Venezuela has a chance to win any time they send Felix Hernandez to the mound. World baseball classic betting odds are waiting for you at WagerWeb.ag

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