The MLB season makes it a very popular time for sports bettors. But when it comes down to revenues the same sport that gets so much attention from bettors is the same that Las Vegas sportsbook likes the least. Fortunately for them they only have one month on the calendar when baseball is the main source of income.
Right now, they’re thankful the betting public has most of its interest and bankroll side-tracked and dedicated to the NBA Playoffs. The NHL Playoffs even get a little more traction with public appeal at this time of year.
After two weeks of action, baseball has been a grind so far for the house, which is right in line for most years. The books have been winning a few days, then they lose a few, making it basically a push, and that’s not the type of consistent results a casino desires.
They got a boost when the Pirates swept the Cubs over the weekend. The Cubs are respected by bettors everywhere and when the majority make their daily parlays, the Cubs are often thrown blindly into the mix.
The VP of risk management at CG Technology Jason Simbal said the easiest way to tell whether his books were a winner or loser on the day in baseball is simply checking to see if popular teams like the Cubs and Red Sox won on the same night together.
What I’m here to tell you is not to be too distracted by the allure of the NBA Playoffs at the expense of betting baseball. If a book holds 6.8 percent in the NBA, 7.1 percent in the NHL and 0.9 percent in baseball, what would seem like your best option to make money with?
When I worked behind the counter, part of my job was analyzing the P&L’s, including all wagering categories offered to the public, giving reasons why we won and excuses why we lost. Baseball was always filled with lots of excuses, more so than all the other sports. And the year-over-year analysis was always the same with occasional losing months in baseball and the lowest hold of all sports.
The simple reason was we were offering a 10-cent money-line split compared to basketball and football that has a 20-cent split on the point-spread and money-line. You can juice out the other sports with equal action, but with baseball it’s much smaller with the same limit wagers because of the line movement.
In other sports you move the spread with the same juice remaining on both sides. In baseball you move the money-line and each ensuing line move puts the book in a smaller window of opportunity to win if equal action is eventually bet on the other side.
So enjoy the NBA and NHL Playoffs, but know your best bet is still baseball. The advice here is to stay away from the run-line, unless taking +1.5, and the best parlay is the two-team side to total, usually with a hot starter tied to the Under.
It’s a great correlation; if one thing happens the other is more likely as opposed to tying two separate events together where they’re not correlated. Join WagerWeb.ag