All posts by phnseo

Double Chance Betting Strategy

live bettingSimply put, in this betting strategy you can bet on two outcomes of a game. Needless to say, the only precondition is that the sport you are betting on has three different possible outcomes (e.g. Win, Draw, Loss). Compared to a common bet where you only bet on one of these three outcomes, in a double chance bet you bet on two and thus decrease your risk. On the downside of this, of course, the odds are lower than on common bets.

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Examples for double chance bets

As an example we take a look at a football game. In football you can bet on the required three outcomes of a game. A team can win (1), lose (2) or draw (X) against its opponent. So, if you have the feeling that the underdog (Away-Team) is able to draw the favorite or even to beat him, you could place your bet on a Draw (X) or an Away-Team-Win (2). Let’s say Liverpool FC is up against Aston Villa in the Premier League. At the book-makers the “Reds” are a runaway favorite, but you think that Aston Villa could get at least one point out of the game? In this case you could place an X2-bet to increase your chances to win. On the right side you can see an example for double chance betting system.

Generally speaking there are three different possibilities of a double chance bet:

Case 1: Win Team A + Draw – 1X

Case 2: Win Team B + Draw – 2X

Case 3: Win Team A + Win Team B – 12

Is it possible to make money with a double chance strategy?

All in all, yes you can. However, the odds are usually lower than on common sports bets. That is why you should use this betting concept for games with a risky outcome. At those games the odds are generally a little higher and despite the decrease due to the double chance still profitable. Because of the decreased risk that double chance bets go along with, they are also perfect for your accumulator bets to push up your odds. For example you can combine your double chance tips with some handicap betting.

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Which sports are ideal for double chance bets?

As earlier mentioned, those bets are only available for sports with three outcomes. Hence you cannot bet on sports like tennis or volleyball, where there is only one winner and they cannot draw. Apart from sports like those they can be useful in any other sport. Nevertheless, they are very popular with football bets because football bears so many surprise wins and losses (or draws).

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Live Betting Tips

live bettingLive Betting includes bets that occur on a constantly evolving line during a game in play. You can usually bet on quarters, halves and the outcome of the whole game itself. You can do so by finding the game in the sportsbook and clicking on the “Live Betting” link under the matchup.

A window will then open with odds that reflect the current score of the game. You’ll notice that the Live Betting spread will be different than the pre-game line that was initially set for the game because it’s based on the action. For example, if Oklahoma City is -9.0 favorites against the Brooklyn Nets, and they’re up 14-3 in the first quarter the spread will probably be much higher. Likewise, if they’re down 3-14, the spread will come down closer to even.

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Spreads, totals and moneylines will vastly change as the game progresses. If the Thunder are down 37-48 heading in to the second half, you will be able to bet on a modified spread, total and moneyline. If you’re watching the game, or even attending the game, you can use Live Betting to either hedge a losing pre-game bet or compound it.

TIPS FOR LIVE BETTING

  1. Start With A Pre-Game Bet
    You are definitely free to live bet on a game that you haven’t laid previous action on (and it’s a great way to get in on a game when you don’t get a bet in earlier), but this at least gives you a starting point. If you are worried about losing your bet, you can use Live Betting to recover your original amount. Better yet, you can lean harder on your original position in order to increase your gains. Starting with a pre-game bet gives you a sense of context – you know which outcome you’re rooting for.

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  1. Have A Good Bankroll
    Loading up your account with larger balances gives you a better chance at more freeplay, but when it comes to Live Betting it gives you flexibility as well. If you’ve dumped all of your existing money in to a regular bet, that will leave you with no money for Live Betting. This seems like obvious thinking but if you have a particular NBA or NHL game in mind, and $100 to spend why not leverage $50 on a pre-game bet and keep $50 in store just in case? This leave you some flexibility to see how a game unfolds and allows you to either cover your tracks or double up your winnings.
  2. Trust Your Instincts
    Your instincts can be based on numbers or gut feelings. It’s up to you and the type of player you are. Develop a strategy and stick to it, tweaking it along the way until it resembles something you’re comfortable with.

One tidbit about that Iron Bowl game – I was alone at home on my couch. Ok, my cat was there too. Live Betting made that game a thousand times more thrilling win or lose. You walk in to your bets with a gameplan. Live Betting allows you to execute that game plan and react to the action as it develops adding more excitement and fun to the journey.

Gambling is an edge-of-your-seat ride to begin with. Now imagine strapping rockets to the chair and travelling at a hundred miles an hour. That’s how fun Live Betting is. Give it a shot with a solid strategy and a decent bankroll and you won’t regret it.

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Sports Betting Strategy

sport bettingThe best sports bettors in the world rarely (if ever) win more than 60% of the time, so clearly betting on the outcome of sporting events is a difficult business. Because of the juice required to place bets with bookmakers, the breakeven point for sports gambling is around 53% – anything above that is pure profit. Believe it or not, sports bettors who consistently win and make a living off their hobby do exist, though they are in the minority.

What do they do and know that separates their betting habits from people who consistently lose? After all, sports bettors go through losing streaks, even those who make a living from gambling on sports. The formula is simple enough: win more often than you lose, and follow basic sports betting strategy tips, and you can profit from your wagers in the long run.

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Winning Sports Betting Strategies and Tactics

The following pieces of sports betting advice can help you turn a profit from your wagers. These basic sports betting strategies are common knowledge; nothing written in this article is a deep dark secret of the sports gambling industry. The trick is to follow these tips at all times, never letting your heart get in the way of a smart wager. If you want to win money betting on sports, you need to follow some basic strategies for sports gamblers.

Money Management / Bankroll Management

Setting aside a specific amount of money, known as your “bankroll”, will help keep your gambling on-budget. It’s true that you should never use your rent money to bet on sports, but the converse of that is that you should never use your sports betting bankroll to pay rent, if you want to be a profitable gambler.

Establishing a bankroll means deciding on an amount of cash that you can afford to lose.

Establishing a specific bankroll for a given sport’s season includes breaking that budget down by the month, the week, and per game. General sports betting strategy advice in terms of your bankroll will tell you that you shouldn’t wager more than 1% of your total bankroll per game. Anything above 1% is considered a risky bet, while wagers made up of 1% of your bankroll are considered conservative, smart wagers.

As an example, let’s say you’ve decided your bankroll for the entire NFL season is $1,000; you don’t want to wager more than $10 per NFL game. Bets of that size keep from losing too much on a bad wager, and can still help you turn a profit.

Bankroll strategy also teaches gamblers not to try to make up for losses by placing larger bets. Your brain may tell you that you have to “win back” your losses by doubling your wagers on your next round of bets, but this sort of wager manipulation is more likely to lead to even bigger losses. Always work within your established bankroll, and if you have some success, then consider increasing your wagers a few bucks at a time over the course of a season.

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Bet in Your Right Mind

There’s an expression common to all forms of gambling, known as “going on tilt.” Poker players, slot machine junkies, and sports bettors are all liable to bet “on tilt” when they let their emotions get the best of them and forget about basic strategy. Betting when you’re in your right mind means ignoring your emotions and wagering only when you are sober and in a good mood.

One way to think of placing sports wagers is to only bet when you would feel safe driving. Brick and mortar sportsbooks often include bars – why do you think that is? People who have imbibed a little too much beer or whiskey tend to place wagers based on their emotions, and as a result lose more than they win. Gambling on sports while you’re drunk (or under the influence of drugs) will keep you from using good judgment and can put your bankroll in jeopardy.

As for the advice to avoid allowing your emotions to take over, understand that being angry or even being extremely happy can impair your judgment just as easily as a few too many beers. Let’s say you’ve just experienced a round of bad beats and you’re down in the mouth – that’s the perfect time to walk away from the sportsbook until your head is clear. If you’re on a losing streak, you need to take a break before you start placing other sports bets. It’s no surprise that many professional sports bettors understand the ins and outs of meditation and emotional control; clearing your mind after a series of bad losses will help you keep your bankroll in the black.

Do the Homework

Probably the most important sports wagering tip is to do your homework before you place a bet. Researching before you place a bet means handicapping teams as well as shopping for the best lines. In fact, line-shopping is often more important than knowing the ins and outs of all the teams and players involved in your wagers. Studying your picks before you make them means comparing stats, betting trends, past performances, and hunting for the best possible lines before you lay down a bet.

More on Line Shopping

Winning sports bettors are often those gamblers that have the patience and ability to look around for the best lines. That’s one reason why opening accounts at multiple online sportsbooks is a winning strategy – different books have different lines and odds, and membership at a variety of these sites gives you the chance to find the best line and lay your money on those odds. Here’s an example; let’s say you want to bet on the San Francisco 49ers and most books are offering a point spread of 7. If you spend time line-shopping, you may find a book offering the same bet at 6.5 points or even better. Repeat that practice over the period of an entire sports betting season and you’re more likely to find yourself winning more often than you lose.

For the most part, sports betting strategy is just common sense. Establish your bankroll and acceptable bet sizes, control your emotions, avoid betting when you’re under-the-influence, and shop for the best lines. The rest is up to the teams you wager on and the finicky gods that watch over sporting events.

 

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Ways To Improve Your Betting Skills

online betting It is not ‘gambling money’ but a financial investment, just the same as the money you might use to buy shares in a company. That is one tip worth remembering – it’ll certainly make you think twice about squandering your cash on silly bets. But you have to believe in what you are doing.

This ideas twill help you to greatly improve your betting approach. They are direct, simple but effective ideas and I suggest you try to remember as many of them as you can.

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THE BIG 50 BETTING IDEAS

  1. Never give a horse resuming from a long spell the benefit of the doubt unless you know for sure that it can win first-up. Check your past form charts thoroughly to determine this ability. A horse might be able to win first-up after a 12 weeks’ lay-off, but not after a 26 weeks’ rest.
  2. Steer clear of backing run-of-the-mill stayers when they resume from a spell in sprint races. Only topclass stayers can win first-up in sprints – and even they can’t do it all that often.
  3. Keep a notebook of small clippings from newspapers. These should mention good training workouts, trainer’s references to future races, jockeys’ comments and anything that might help you pinpoint future winners.
  4. If you haven’t got a video recorder then get one. Tape the replays and study them carefully. You can also buy full video tapes of meetings in your particular state. These can, though, be costly.
  5. Never back a horse to win on a slow or heavy track unless you know it can handle the track conditions. It is vitally important that any horse you back on rain-affected tracks should have won, or finished within 2 lengths of the winner, in similar conditions.
  6. It is crazy to bet more than you can afford. Don’t be like the man who asks his wife: “Who took my betting money and spent it on the rent?”
  7. Rely on facts and figures and not hunches and dreams when you select your horses. In the long run, there is nothing better than form to help you find the winners. Study form and decide on positive answers to the riddles.
  8. Trust your eyes, and not your ears. This was the advice handed out a long time ago by professional punter Wally Mitchell – and it’s advice that stands true today. Don’t listen to other mugs, is what he meant.
  9. Pay close attention to class. A horse racing out of its class has to be regarded with scepticism. Try to stick with those horses who are fit, in form and racing in the right class. It’s a winning recipe.
  10. Eric Connolly used to urge punters never to be suspicious before a race by searching for possible conspiracies by connections and the like. Ignore the wild gossip you often hear on racetracks and stay firm on your form line of approach.
  11. Study every runner in a race on an impersonal basis. Don’t let your personal dislikes influence your judgement. Look upon each race as an intellectual challenge and decide on real answers, not guesses.
  12. If you allow yourself to be lulled into making too many bets, you will be doomed. Pick your races as carefully as you select your horses. Some races are unbettable. Others shine as good betting races. Stick with better class races.
  13. A bettable race is one where all the horses have past performances complete enough to allow you to make a close estimate as to how each horse is likely to perform. Avoid races where many runners are resuming from spells.
  14. Test your patience every raceday. When you attend the races, there is a temptation to back horses in all States. Avoid this like you would avoid the black plague. You will be killing yourself financially.
  15. Never place your complete trust in apprentice jockeys unless you are 100% certain they can ride your horse to the fullest advantage. Only in-form, winning apprentices should be considered.
  16. Remember that stayers hold their fitness longer than sprinters. Sprinters can go ‘off’ virtually overnight. They’ll win and then lose next start. It’s all to do with their breeding and training as ‘hell for leather’ speedsters.
  17. Before you rush in to back a favourite, remember that they win approximately only 30%-31 % of all races, and they can have long losing runs. Ensure the favourite you support is a true favourite at good odds.

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  1. Mark these sayings down in your notebook – good horse and bad jockey only a fair bet, bad horse al d good jockey a bad bet, bad horse and bad jockey, shocking bet, and good horse and good jockey -could be a good bet.
  2. Watch for emerging patterns in a horse’s racing career- some gallopers always take three runs before they win, others score second-up regularly, and still others need five or six runs before winning.
  3. Never give it all back! When you have profits in your pocket, adopt a conservative approach and pocket at least 40% of what you have won and hang on to it. Punt all your profits up and you’ll regret it.
  4. Get a good staking plan each particular betting action. If you back win/place and quinellas, then make sure you follow them on a proper basis with solid, proven staking methods. Never bet haphazardly.
  5. If you are backing ‘for a win, don’t risk all your money on just one horse. Take ‘saver’ bets on the horses you consider are the major dangers. That way, you’ll at least get your money back many, many times.
  6. If you have studied the form carefully, and are sure of what you are doing, then don’t be afraid of prices. If your form horse is at big odds, don’t hesitate to back it. It could be the other punters and bookies who are making the mistake!
  7. When you study form, you must also study barrier positions. Always penalise horses that are drawn badly. Use a scale between 1/2 kg and 3kg for penalties, depending on how bad the barrier might be.
  8. There’s an old saying that the worst tipsters are trainer, jockeys and owners, with the latter category being the worst. Most owners believe their horses can win every time they set foot on a racetrack. Most are wrong!
  9. There is no such thing as a certainty on a racetrack. Eric Connolly once said he had only one certainty during his career, and it was beaten. Too much can happen in a race to be absolutely sure of any horse, no matter how good it might be.
  10. Punters who blindly back odds-on chances will end up losing. The winning percentage of horses priced at odds-on is just not high enough for a punter to come out ahead.
  11. Keep track of all your bets, and costs associated with your racegoing and form study, so that you know clearly after 12 months how you are faring. You’ll be surprised at how much money you can lose without really noticing it!
  12. Study the operations of bookmakers. It is essential to have a full knowledge of the way percentages operate to understand how the bookies can make a profit, and how the punter can battle the bookies’ percentage advantage.
  13. Don’t write off a horse because of one poor run – instead, try to discover if it lost on its merits, or because it suffered severe interference or some other form of bad luck. Read as many stewards’ reports as you can – and file them.
  14. Set yourself a 12 month goal to make money. Do not get depressed about losses. Everyone suffers them. Stick to your guns and, most of all, have faith in yourself.

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Bad Habit Blues

Casino BettingWe can point the accusing finger at bad habits-punters committing the same mistakes time and again, no matter how much the mistakes, of which they are aware, cost them in dollars and cents.

In a way, it’s like a child who bums his fingers on a hot stove and yet continues to place his hand on it. So often, when it comes to betting, punters do not stop to think. The same errors of judgments are committed.

It’s always wise to keep a close check on your outlays on betting. If you do not keep a detailed record of wins and losses, you are only fooling yourself. You’ll be surprised at how much money is involved over a 12 months’ period, and how much you might lose.

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Why do so many punters lose at betting? What is it they do wrong, apart from picking too many losers?

It’s my firm belief we can point the accusing finger at bad habits-punters committing the same mistakes time and again, no matter how much the mistakes, of which they are aware, cost them in dollars and cents.

In a way, it’s like a child who bums his fingers on a hot stove and yet continues to place his hand on it. So often, when it comes to betting, punters do not stop to think. The same errors of judgement are committed.

It’s always wise to keep a close check on your outlays on betting. If you do not keep a detailed record of wins and losses, you are only fooling yourself. You’ll be surprised at how much money is involved over a 12 months’ period, and how much you might lose.

If I could give just one piece of advice to any punter it would be to invest in a $2 notebook and keep a strict record of every bet you have. Throw in, too, all your incidental expenses associated with your punting, like form guides, newspapers, racetrack admission, programmes and food and-drink consumed while at the track.

The amount of money it costs just to keep up with all these ‘miscellaneous’ expenses will also give you something of a shock.

I’ve drawn up a list of common bad habits and what you should do is scan them and ask yourself, very seriously, how many apply to your betting. Then, make a conscious effort to discipline yourself not to fall into the habits again.

These are just some of the bad habits that may afflict you as you go about the business of betting. Don’t feel too mortified if you are prone to one or more of the failings because the majority of punters are in the same boat.

Punting is like that. It breeds bad habits. It breeds indecision, stress, worry, fear and, often, desperation. It is these things you will always have to cope with and find ways of beating.

A run of losses can dent the confidence of e en a super optimist. A run of wins can send even the most sensible punter on a rampage which, inevitably, will lead to his demise.

If you can discipline yourself to treat your punting as a serious business then you are a long way down the track to overcoming many of the bad habits I have mentioned. The answer lies within yourself.

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Bad habits will bring you down. Eradicating them will help you end up financially ahead. Think about it.

  1. HAPHAZARD BETTING. Popping into your TAB agency and scanning the fields just for the sake of having a bet.
  2. SCATTERGUN SELECTION. Betting on horses whose names you had never heard of before seeing them pinned up on the TAB sheets in your local agency.
  3. WINNING, THEN LOSING. Don’t finish up a loser after having been a winner. If you get ahead at the track, or during the day betting on the TAB, always slip at least 50 per cent in your pocket as a dividend and bet the rest.
  4. BETTING ON EVERY RACE. Most of the consistent losers bet like this. Race by race punters have very little chance of success. Patience is a virtue.
  5. BETTING WITH FRIGHTENED MONEY. Never bet the money you cannot afford to lose.
  6. CHASING LOSSES. We’ve all seen the desperate punters chasing their losses on the last race at the track. Their judgement is warped and they forget that there’s always another race day.
  7. PUNTING WITHOUT CAREFUL STUDY. Picking winners is one of the hardest assignments. Closely investigate every horse you fancy.
  8. BACKING HUNCHES AND GUESSES. Okay, once or twice you’ll stumble on a winner. Most times you won’t. Make it a rule never to have a bet unless you have a strong logical reason for backing the horse (or dog).
  9. POOR MONEY MANAGEMENT. You might be the wisest and best tipster around but you still need to know how to invest your money. Study as many staking plans as you can and choose the ones that suit your betting style.
  10. SEEKING THE IMPOSSIBLE. It’s folly to go to the races to be on longshots. With eight races, 12 horses in each race, there are only 8 favourites but there are likely to be at least 40 horses qualifying as longshots. Which ones will you be on-and will they be the ones to bob up?
  11. RUSHING IN TO TAKE ODDS-ON. Small punters too often rush in blindly to back odds-on favourites. Only when you can detect the true favourite from the false favourite should you consider laying odds-on.
  12. BACKING ONE HORSE A RACE. Why not play a safer game and back two horses per race? You reduce the chance of striking long losing runs and all your eggs are not in the one basket.

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Why Horses Win Races

gambling onlineTo understand why winners win the average punter must be prepared to put his or her mind down to some serious thinking. Because finding out ‘why’ is what form study is all about.

When you sit down with your form guide what are you doing but asking yourself ‘why can this horse win this race?’ or ‘why can’t this horse win this race?’ Whichever way you look at it you are searching for a reason why a horse can do better than all the others.

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Let’s go through a recent metropolitan card to see if there are some angles in the formlines that might help us in the future. It’s the Rosehill meeting of December 4.

Race 1:
CARLMARC (66/1). You would be hard-pressed, indeed, to come up with one valid reason why this 3YO should have won this race. But he did have a couple of factors working for him – he’s in the care of master trainer Jack Denham, he had only 51 kgs (the bottom weight) to carry and he was drawn in barrier 5 after scratchings. His form, though, looked uninspiring – a last start 8th of 8 at the same track two weeks earlier when resuming after a spell of four months.

His two runs at the end of his last campaign were 10th of 16 at Rosehill and 12th of 14 at Randwick. So why would you select him? Maybe you gave ‘weight’ to the Denham influence, and to the fact that after six starts he was mature enough to start winning? Perhaps the real clue was his debut run on a racetrack back in June when he ran 3rd to Phocion at Rosehill over 1300m, beaten only a length? Ah, yes this was THE clue!

LESSON: Always go right back in a horse’s form to find his TRUE POTENTIAL. Don’t always rely too much on recent form, because latest outings may just have been ‘getting ready’ races.

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Race 2: 
SIGN LANGUAGE (8/13): Here we had a classic last-start winner who could repeat without too much worry. The 2YO filly had won her debut outing two weeks before by 8 lengths and she’s in the powerful John Hawkes stables.

On weights, she’s okay despite a 3 kilos lift from her winning last run. Why could she win this race? She obviously is a brilliant type, she’s fit, she’s in a top stable and 2YOs often put two or three together at this time of the season.

LESSON: Not much to be learned here – winning form can be strong form where 2YOs are concerned, especially when they’re in a good stable.

Race 3:
FOREVER INGENUE (5/1): A real ‘form’ selection, this one. The mare was beaten only 1.25 lengths at her last start, three weeks earlier, and she now faced a lower grade field over the same trip. There was, too, a significant jockey change with Jim Cassidy taking over from Matt Privato. Add to this the John Hawkes touch and your ‘why’ was easily answered.

LESSON: The combination of fit, form horse with top trainer and top jockey is always to be heeded.

Race 4:
CRATHIE (13/4): Yet another case for the last-start winner followers. In this instance, Crathie had won at Canterbury 10 days earlier over 1250m, only 50m short of today’s 1300m trip. At his previous run the 6YO had scored at the same track on November 10 over 1250km again. We can deduce from this that he is fit and sound.

He’s from the Hawkes stable (!) and the trainer has elected to go with the in-form apprentice Corey Brown, taking a nice claim off the 55 kgs handicapped weight. Although up in class, Crathie was not penalised weight wise from his last start and he was nicely drawn in barrier 5. If you asked yourself ‘why’ he could win then all the answers were there.

LESSON: Take full stock of solid last start form, especially winning form, when the trainer is in the big league and he decides to keep on using the apprentice’s claim.

Race 5:
IDENTIKIT (6/4): Another 2YO race and one with a lot of newcomers, but Identikit had strong claims. To your question of ‘why’ can he win, you could point to his two sound 2nds from his only two runs so far, the fact that he came from the Hawkes stable(!) and that he was fit and in form.

He was also meeting on 1 kg better terms the horse that beat him by half a length last start, Moneybags. Yes, he had a very good chance, an undeniable chance – and he proved it.

LESSON: Once more, we can see that strong 2YO form is consistent form. As well, we see again the importance of top trainer!

Race 6:
WELSH MINER (4/1, won on protest): Both the horses that went across the line in this race, Welsh Miner and Belays Knap, had reasonable formlines, though Belas Knap’s probably made more appeal. Looking for a reason for Welsh Miner to prevail, we could point to his proven first-up record (he was resuming after a 5.5 months spell) and the fact he was a course and distance winner. Add to that the significant jockey switch from S. Collings to Gavin Eades, and the input of top country trainer K.J. Callaughan from Yass, and you can make out a serious case for Welsh Miner to be in the finish of this 1300m dash.

LESSON: When you have a horse resuming from a spell, you MUST go back through its formlines to see if it has first-up winning form. In Welsh Miner’s case, it had won first-up at its previous campaign, so the signal was loud and clear.

Race 7:
TAKESHI (8/1): Those who fervently believe in winning form, and top jockeys, and good trainers, would have been falling over themselves to back Takeshi in this 1500m race. The 4YO Entire had won his last two starts over 2000m and had Jim Cassidy aboard for the Paul Perry stable.

But there were negatives – a drop back in distance to 1500m, a big weight of 58 kgs (though on a 53 kgs Limit) and no record of wins over the trip. On the other hand, the horse was obviously fit, had been given two weeks off to ‘refresh’ and, if the pace was right, he could zoom home late. Which is what he did.

LESSON: Any winning form has to bet treated with respect, and careful evaluation must be made of distance switches, whether up or down. In this case, Takeshi had shown a good run over 1500m back in March, when beaten only 2 lengths at Rosehill, so the conclusion could be drawn that the distance wasn’t all that much of a negative. This is an instance where you must ask yourself ‘why’ the connections are switching him back? You have to conclude that a trainer like Perry knows what he is doing and would have carefully trained Takeshi for the
change. So, he was a very bettable conveyance, all things considered.

Race 8:
JOVIAL PRINCE (12/1): Here was a horse with good recent formlines and from the Clarrie Conners’ stable. Looking at the 5YO’s recent form you could easily answer ‘why’ he could win: For a start, he’d finished only 2.6 lengths from the winner when 7th of 15 over 2000m at Randwick on November 27, and before that had run 2nd of 9 at Canterbury over 1900m.

Today’s journey was 2000m and although up in class, the Prince was dropping 3.5 kgs in weight and had Larry Cassidy aboard. Given that this was not a strong field, and that Jovial Prince had already won over the distance of the race, he laid claims to being the winner.

LESSON: Horses that are unplaced last start but finish within a few lengths of the winner have to be taken seriously, especially when they drop in weight, come from a good stable and are fit and have shown winning form over the trip.

This, then, is one meeting at which we have evaluated some of the reasons why these winners were able to get home ahead of the rest in their races. Naturally, it’s not as easy as it might sound to sort out these horses because there is another highly important variable – the credentials of other runners in a race!

You might have three or four horses pressing for selection with formlines that are more or less the same. How do you separate them? Sometimes you don’t have to, because the prices available about them may enable you to back them all.

This won’t always happen, but it will happen enough times to probably make it a most worthwhile exercise in multiple win betting.

THE CLUES TO LOOK FOR …

  • Last start winners who are to be ridden by good jockeys and come from top stables. Check that the distance is right, and that they are fit.
  • First-uppers – when you see a horse resuming from a spell take the time to check back on its form. Ascertain if it is a first-up winner.
  • Significant jockey changes can be a positive influence with any horse. A switch from apprentice to top rider should be treated seriously. It indicates stable confidence.
  • Good form, with a close-up unplaced run last start. Although a horse is beaten out of a place, it might well have been only a couple of lengths from the winner. Give this sort of formline due respect.
  • Check out longshots from top stables – and if there’s no decent recent form, flip back through the formguide to see if you can find a positive performance (see the remarks in this article about Carimarc).
  • Horses beaten only a neck or so into 2nd place can look good next time out, especially if the stable is strong and a crack jockey is aboard and the weight handicapping is not negative.
  • Look for excuses if a horse has losing runs to its name. Discover the causes, if any for the failures. Look for drops in class for unplaced runners last start. A horse beaten 5 or 6 lengths in one class can drop back in class and win easily.
  • Horses placed last start who drop from 1.5 kgs to 3 kgs next time out are probably going up in class, but their fitness helps them overcome the class factor.
  • Always check on ‘days since last start’ and keep 21 days in mind as a key for fitness.
  • When studying 2YO racing, bear in mind that the form usually holds up well. Winning form is good form, and winners from top stables often repeat their wins.

 

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Parlay Betting Strategy

sports betting siteA parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.

To give an example, say you’re interested this week in betting Jets -4, Patriots +3, Dolphins +2.5 and Colts -7. If your bankroll is limited to just $100, using straight wagers you’d make four separate bets of $25 to win $22.73. If you we’re feeling both lucky and in the mood to gamble, you might instead bet them all together as a four team parlay. Under the parlay option, the stakes would be $100 to win at least $1,000. To win, you’ll need to go 4-0; if one or more games push while all others win, the payout is reduced, and with any other outcome, the bet is a loss.

Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts.

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Are Parlays Sucker Bets?

There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.

The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:

2 teams 2.6 to 1
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 20-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 80-1
8 teams 150-1

Online the odds are similar.What’s important to note is that these are fixed odds based on a 50/50 wagering proposition. If a spread is listed at Home Team -7 / Road Team +7 this is 50/50 proposition. If, instead, the spread was Home Team -7 -105 / Road Team +7 -115, this is no longer a 50/50 proposition, and the payout will be calculated using a method bookmakers refer to as “true odds”. I’ll cover that later in this article, but first let’s take a moment to understand where fixed parlay odds are derived from.

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Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:

Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91)
Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65)
Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97)
Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31)
Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41)
Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51)
Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70)
Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)

The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.

True Odds Parlays

Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.

To calculate true odd parlays, each bet first needs to be converted into a multiplier. To do this, take what a winning ticket would return and divide it by the amount risked. For example, at -110 a $110 stake returns $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). Calculating the multiplier as return/risk here, we plug in 210/110, which means the multiplier is 1.91. If we did the same on -115, the multiplier is 215/115=1.87.

Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.

As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.

Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays

1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.

2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.

3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.

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How To Get Maximum Value When Betting

sports betting siteA topic that doesn’t get discussed often in sports betting is how to maximize value. Let’s take NFL football for example. If we like the Jets this week, we could bet the Jets on the moneyline or the Jets on the point spread. This is a basic decision gamblers make on a regular basis, some using strategy, others using feel.

The question I’ll pose is: how many NFL bettors dig deeper than that to look at the effects of buying half points, teasing/pleasing, as well as evaluating the first half betting lines and prop bets derived from the primary betting market. In this article, I’ll address this topic. If you pick up on, understand, and apply a percentage of what I share here, you should immediately increase your sports betting earnings.

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To Maximize Value Line Shopping is Critical

One of the biggest leaks in most sports bettor’s game is failure to shop for the best line and price. For example lets say the betting line for the Cleveland Browns at various betting sites is Betting site #1 +4.5 -108, Betting site #2 u +4 -110, Betting site #3 +4 -110, Betting site #4: +4.5 -115, Betting site #5 +4.5 -120. In this case, Betting site #1 has the best line.

To illustrate the importance of line shopping, if I give the Browns a 54% chance of covering +4, hence the reason I am looking to bet them, my expected return at each online betting site above is: Betting site #1 6.7%, Betting site #2 and Betting site #3: 3.14%, Betting site #14 1.87%, Betting site #5 1.1%.

Compare and think about those figures for a few minutes. How much are you betting per game? How many games do you bet (per day, per week, per year)? Most sports bettors throw hundreds or even thousands of dollars away each year because they don’t line shop. This applies to losing sports bettors the same as it does to winners. Losing bettors end up losing considerably more than they should, while winning bettors don’t win as much as they could.

While the ability to pick winners is nice, more often than not sports bettors are going off instinct and can’t win at a high enough amount to beat the vig. When shopping multiple betting sites for the best price, the effects of vig are nearly negated entirely. Be sure to read the conclusion of this article where I share which sites are best for line shopping.

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Understanding Half Point Value

When shopping betting sites, both point spread and price are a concern. Deciding between +4 or +4.5, when both are equally priced, is a no brainer; we’re going to take the extra half point. Where it becomes a challenge is when one site is offering +4.5 -110 and the other +4 -103. A professional sports bettor would head to his NFL database and calculate that over the past five years underdogs have lost by exactly 4 points 3.38% of the time. He might choose to refine that further, running only games where the spread was 3.5 to 5.5, or where the total predicted scores were similar, and then take weighted average. For this sample, we’ll just go with 3.38%.

To calculate which line is better, the first thing we need to know is how often we must win at -103 to break even. The math for that is risk divided by potential return. Example, $103 risked, wins $100; so a ticket returns $203 (stake +win). Here we take 103/203 and get 0.5074. This means we need to win 50.74 percent of the time to break even betting at -103. Now to see how much the half point is worth, lets go back to our 3.38% push rate on the 4. Keep in mind that we can’t take credit for the full 3.38% when moving from +4 to +4.5, because half of that push probability is built into our opponent’s line of -4. Taking credit for half, we add 1.69% to 50.74% to determine +4 -103 is the same at +4.5 (52.43%).When we consider that we don’t bet in percentages, we need to figure out what line breaks even 52.43% of the time. While we can solve this with simple algebra, the math is boring; so let’s just Google search “Moneyline Converter”. Using a moneyline/percentage calculator, plug in 52.43% to determine +4 -103 is the same as +4.5 -110.2. Therefore, while not by much, we’re getting a little better expectation on +4.5 -110, so that’s the line we’ll bet.

If you’re betting professionally as a source of income, you’ll eventually want to get a database where you can calculate push rates on your own. For the casual bettor, here is some rough value of half points on and off of key numbers.

1=5.5 cents, 2=4 cents, 3=22 cents, 4=7.2 cents, 5=3.4 cents, 6=7 cents, 7=12 cents, 8=4.5 cents, 9=1.8 cents, 10=10.4 cents, 11=4.5 cents, 12=0.9 cents, 13=2.6 cents, 14=10.5 cents

To explain the above so it is clear, you’ll see 1 point is worth 5.5 cents. This means that +1.5 -110 is the same as +1 -104.5. Take another example, where 7 is worth 12 cents. This means +6.5 +100 is the same as +7 -112, and the same as +7.5 -124. As you can see in the second example, this can be used both ways. It also can be used on the favorite: -7.5 +100 is the same as -7 -112, which is the same as -6.5 -124. The push charts shared above are good enough for the casual gambler shopping lines.

Buying Half Points

Most online sportsbooks offer players the opportunity to purchase half points at 10 cents each when the 3 or 7 is not involved. While this is generally a bad idea, looking at the push chart above you’ll find 10 and 14 are worth more than 10 cents. Therefore, after all your line shopping is done, if the bookmaker also sells half points at 10 cents, you should purchase them under the following circumstances:

1) +9.5 to +10 always purchase one or two half points to get the line to +10.5

2) -10.5 to -10 always purchase one or two half points to get the line to -9.5

3) +13.5 to +14 always purchase one or two half points to get the line to +14.5

4) -14.5 to -14 always purchase one or two half points to get the line to -13.5

These days, there are very few sites that sell points on and off the 7 for ten cents.

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Winning at the Races

horse racing gamesMake sure you look at quality races

The higher the quality of the races you look at the better as higher quality races are more predictable (partly because the past form is better disclosed and more consistent and partly because the horses are all trying harder to win the larger prize money on offer). Narrowing selections down to Saturday metropolitan meetings (eg Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth) is a good start in this regard but a mechanism for picking out the better quality races is still needed. Prize money on offer is an obvious indicator of race quality and these days prize money of at least $100,000 is a good indicator.

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Make sure you eliminate risky races

High quality races can be risky for a number of reasons. For example a race is very hard to predict if it contains a lot of unraced runners (horses that have never raced before). And even if all horses in a race have had past runs, the race is still likely to be hard to predict if a lot of runners are first up from a spell (or in other words had their last start more than a couple months ago). Also risky are races where no horses have any recent winning form.

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Make sure you get the best price

Different TABs pay different prices and you don’t usually know in advance which is going to pay the best price. The easiest solution to this dilemma is to have an account with an online bookie and use their Best Tote product. The

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Prop Betting Strategy

Betting StrategyIn sports betting on a proposition, also called a prop bet or a prop, a wager is placed on anything other than a point spread, moneyline or game total. Exactly what this wager might be is anything from which team will score first, to which quarterback will have the most passing yards, to any other scenario described by a betting site

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This form of wagering is generally considered the easiest to beat. To support this, Las Vegas’ number one sports book for prop wagers, the Las Vegas Hilton, has gone on record many times claiming that Las Vegas sports books frequently lose money on prop bets. Meanwhile, many betting sites willing to take $5K-$40K per bet on NFL sides limit props to $200 or $300 max bets.

The reason props remain the easiest wager to beat relates largely to careless bookmaking. Don’t get me wrong: this is not at all a knock on the bookmaker. With several hundred lines to create and manage, lines managers are content with simplistic methods and low betting limits for small market props. This means that it is quite possible for a serious low to mid-stake pro to analyze a single prop in far greater detail than the odds maker that created it. Meanwhile, the small max betting limit keeps the sharks away and allows for line movement based on recreational action. Careless bookmakers, no sharks, and lots of fish, sounds like a profitable market to me

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To make one thing clear about prop betting, the more smart bettors there are betting props, the lower the opportunity becomes. No one in their right mind is going to write a detailed guide to betting props. To learn, you’ll need to pick things up in bits and pieces. So, while you’ll need to do some digging to get to the point where you can analyze any prop offered, I’ll go ahead and get you started in the right direction. Here, I’ll cover a prop widely available for NFL football, “Which team will score first?”

A Little About Derivatives

The prop bet we just analyzed was a two level deep derivative: Which team to score first is derived from the half time line, which is derived from the full game line. If you’ve read my article on the current betting market, you likely understand that the top level derivative here is the most efficient. The beautiful thing about derivatives in sports betting is that as the main market moves, derivatives follow at a slower pace. Going back earlier in the week to when this prop market first hit the board, the Patriots were favored by more points than they are now. The fact that a small-market level two derivative never fully caught up, combined with recreational bettors moving the line, are the reasons we were able to find this +EV bet. This is an article for another time, but one of the top ways to win in sports betting is to find slow moving derivatives. When you go forward to learning other props, look for ones that are as many derivatives deep as possible, and you’ll have an easier time quantifying your edge.

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