We have talked about reading American and Decimal Lines, how to make conversions between the two systems, but the final thing to look at in this section will be how to figure out no-juice lines, also known as “no-vig” lines in reference to vigorish, the proper name for juice.
As we have said above, the juice is how sportsbooks ensure that they will profit from sports betting, which means that implied win rates are imperfect as long as juice is factored in. To figure out the no-juice lines, you will first have to follow the steps above to find the implied win rates. So, using our examples of 45.5% for the underdog and 56.5% for the favored team, let’s look at how to get the no-juice lines.
Naturally, we’ll again start with the American lines. If you are calculating the no-juice line for the underdog, you will start by dividing the underdog’s implied win rate by the sum of both win rates. In other words, .455 / (.455 + .565) = .446, meaning that the implied win rate without juice is about 44.6% for the underdog.
To get the actual no-juice line, you multiply this number by 100, subtract their sum from 100, and divide the whole thing by the no-juice percentage. In other words, (100 – [100 x .446]) / .446 = 124.2, meaning that the approximate money line for the underdog without juice is about +124
Now, let’s look at the favored team, since this is where juice plays the bigger role. Again, you will be adding the implied win rates, this time dividing them into the win rate for the favored team. This gives you .565 / (.565 + .455) = .5539, meaning that the approximate no-juice win rate is around 55.4% for the Marlins in our example. Then, figure out the revised money line by subtracting this number from 1, and then dividing that into the result of the no-juice percentage multiplied by 100. This gives you (-100 x .554) / (1 – .554) = -124.2, which means the money line for the favored team without juice is about -124.
If you want to do this with decimal lines, you follow the same first step for each to find no-juice percentages. We have already given you these for our example numbers, at values of 44.6% for the underdog and 55.4% for the favored team. Then, to find the actual no-juice decimal line, you divide either of these percentages into 1, giving you 1 / .446 = 2.24 for the underdog’s decimal line and 1 / .554 = 1.805, or about 1.81 for the favored team’s decimal line.
As you can see, the decimal lines are still pretty different, but the American lines are almost identical without juice. This underscores the fact that sportsbooks tend to ensure their income through the money they charge on the juice for bets on favored teams.
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