Tagged in: Horse Racing

American Pharoah is early 6-5 favorite for Breeders’ Cup Classic

American Pharoah On Monday, Triple Crown champion American Pharoah was made the early 6-5 favorite in the field of 10 for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be the last race of his career.

The colt will break from the No. 4 post on Saturday at Keeneland. He is 6-for-7 this year and is coming off a loss in the Travers two months ago.

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Close to 200 horses were pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup, which will be run Friday and Saturday at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington

Drawing the outside post position at No. 10 was Beholder, a 5-year-old mare who is trying to become the first horse to win three different Breeders’ Cup races. Gary Stevens will ride Beholder, the second choice at

Each has a Hall of Fame trainer. Bob Baffert’s American Pharoah has become the crowd favorite after winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Richard Mandella’s Beholder has won 15 of 20 career starts and is trying to join Zenyatta as the only mare to win the Classic, a distance test at 1 1/4 miles.

Breeders’ Cup Classic post positions, odds

  1. Tonalist (6-1)
  2. Keen Ice (12-1)
  3. Frosted (15-1)
  4. American Pharoah (6-5)
  5. Gleneagles (20-1)
  6. Effinex (30-1)
  7. Smooth Roller (15-1)
  8. Hard Aces (50-1)
  9. Honor Code (6-1)
  10. Beholder (3-1)

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How to Pick Your Winning Horse

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Most people do not win at horse racing. They do not study horse racing and handicapping information. They do not have a game play for handicapping and betting on horse races.

Get familiar with reading the race day program. 

Your ability to successfully handicap horses will depend upon your ability to read the race day program. The program is crammed with information that you can use to make smarter bets.

Equibase, the company that creates all the race day programs for every track in the U.S., has a great interactive guide on how to read their race day programs. If you’ve never been to the horse races before, play around with it before you go.

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Look at what class levels the horse has been racing at. 

There are different levels of competition, or classes, in horse racing.  As you go up in class, you’ll find better performing horses and higher purses. There are four race classes: maiden races, claiming races, allowance races, and stakes race

Past performance on surface type. 

Racetracks have different surfaces that the horses run on. Some have natural dirt and grass tracks while others have artificial “all-weather” tracks. Horses perform differently on each type of surface. Some horses love dirt tracks, but don’t like the feel of artificial tracks and vice versa. The program tells you each horse’s past performance on the different surface types.

History with jockey. 

I like to look at a jockey’s performance history in the program. If a jockey consistently places in first, second, or third no matter what horse he or she is riding, it’s a good indicator of talent.

Consider the odds.

For every race, each horse will have the odds of it winning next to its name in the program. The favorite to win is the horse with the lowest odds. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the statistics show that over time going for the race favorite pays off. If you:

  • Bet the race favorite to win, he pays off 33% of the time.
  • Bet the race favorite to place (comes in 1st or 2nd), the favorite pays off 53% of the time.
  • Bet the race favorite to show (comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd), the favorite pays off 67% of the time.

So if you’re looking for an easy way to handicap horses that gives you a good chance of a small return on your money, just bet the race favorite to show.

Watch the horse in the paddock. 

Before every race, the horses are paraded around in an area of the track called the paddock. It gives you a chance to see how the horse looks and is behaving before the race starts.

 

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Neil Callan Makes British Return

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After enjoying his best campaign in Hong Kong, Neil Callan is back in action in Britain for the first time since August at Sandown this evening.

He finished fifth in the jockeys’ championship with 47 winners in Hong Kong, has three rides today and one at Doncaster on Thursday.

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The Group 1-winning rider partners Wafi Star (7.10), One Life Live It (7.45) and Shackled N Drawn (8.50) tonight and will be hoping for better luck than last year when his return to Britain was disrupted by an ankle injury.- .racingpost.com

Callan hopes to ride for Kevin Ryan, James Tate, Wafi Star’s trainer Simon Crisford and owner Alan Spence among others.

“It’s nice to be back and I’ll be here until the third week of August when we fly back to Hong Kong. I’ve got the family with me, so we’ll have a nice break and hopefully I can ride a few winners.” – He said

He added: “He’s owned by Hong Kong owners and is the main reason I’m going there. He’s a nice horse who has been gelded since his last run, which you can forget.”

Callan returns to Hong Kong on August 20 in time for the 2015-16 season, which starts on September 6.

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Pick Horse Racing Winner

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Follow these tips and begin winning at horse racing:

Money management Strategy

Optimal Betting is based on a mathematical principal called the Kelly Criterion. It recommends that you bet a percentage of your bankroll based on your “edge” over the game. Your edge, can be expressed as follows:

Edge = W – L/$ odds

W = percentage of horses that win the race (your win %)

L = percentage of horses that do not win the race.

$ odds = the average win payout based on $1. To determine this, take your average win mutual, subtract $2, then divide by 2. Note: If you do not know both your win % and average win mutuel, then you should start keeping track immediately.

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Bankroll Dedicated to Horse Race Wagering

If you are using a bankroll of $2,000.00 and plan to bet 2% of your bankroll per race, you will be limited to $20.00 wagers. Your standard wager size is also commonly referred to as a “unit.” A much more conservative estimate of how large a bankroll should be is to use to take your average win mutuel, expressed in odds to 1, and multiply if by your standard betting unit, then multiply that amount by 100.

A good rule of thumb to follow is to have a bankroll of at least 50 times your normal betting unit, but 100 times is even better.

Both Value and Price Before Placing a Bet

Limiting your wagering to situations where you have both value and price is an important winning factor that many otherwise good handicappers often overlook.

Have a Game Plan

If you don’t have a handicapping plan, you’re going to be a loser. All successful gamblers, whether they are card players, card counters, sports bettors, craps players or horseplayers, have a plan.

Keep Records of All Your Bets

Keeping records of your horse racing bets does more for you than just telling you if you are ahead or behind. It also helps to show your strengths and weaknesses as a handicapper.

source: sportsbettingacumen.com/

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